After more than three months of persistent decline, Hedera (HBAR) is now flashing some of the strongest bullish indicators seen since mid-2024. The token, which has been in a heavy downtrend since August, is showing renewed momentum across spot and derivatives markets, with multiple reversal signals appearing simultaneously on the charts. Analysts argue that the setup forming now could mark the beginning of a major trend reversal if the current technical structure holds.
HBAR has surged 9% in the past 24 hours to trade near $0.14, even as the broader crypto market continues to struggle with ongoing outflows and weak sentiment. The rebound comes at a time when Bitcoin remains under heavy pressure and risk appetite across most altcoins has been muted. Despite this backdrop, Hedera is beginning to stand out as one of the few tokens displaying early signs of accumulation.
The sharp downturn that began in August was the result of weakening network activity, shrinking DeFi participation, and a macro environment that offered little relief to digital assets. Renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump added further pressure, contributing to a negative shift in sentiment for both global markets and crypto assets. As a result, HBAR fell 13% over the last month and now sits 51% below its July peak.
New inflows from exchange-traded funds initially generated enthusiasm following the launch of spot HBAR ETFs in late summer. However, that momentum was short-lived. While many investors expected institutional appetite to fuel sustained upside, inflows failed to keep pace with competing altcoins. Solana ETFs have attracted $510 million so far, compared to just $76 million for HBAR, according to SoSoValue data. The subdued interest weighed on price performance throughout October and November.
Weakness has also been visible across Hedera’s decentralized finance sector. Total value locked across Hedera-based protocols has fallen from $315 million in July to $157.9 million today, marking a drop of nearly 50%, according to DeFiLlama. Stablecoin supply has contracted dramatically during the same window, falling from $224 million in August to just $72 million. Reduced capital flows have made it increasingly difficult for liquidity pools and DeFi markets on Hedera to remain competitive with faster-growing networks.
Despite the overarching slowdown, derivatives traders are beginning to take the opposite side of the trend. Open interest in HBAR futures has jumped 13% in the last 24 hours, while the long/short ratio is approaching 1, indicating that positioning is shifting toward bullish speculation. Historically, rising open interest during downside exhaustion has often been an early signal of trend reversal.
The daily price structure supports that outlook. Since July, HBAR has been moving inside a descending parallel channel — a pattern defined by lower highs and lower lows within two downward-sloping trendlines. Although this structure typically confirms ongoing weakness, a breakout from the upper boundary is widely interpreted as a reversal trigger. The current price upswing places HBAR’s price near this upper trendline, signaling that a breakout attempt may already be underway.
Additionally, Hedera is forming a triple bottom pattern around $0.123. The three retests of the same support area suggest strong buying interest at that level. The neckline of this formation sits near $0.228, which serves as the next major price barrier. If HBAR manages to break through that level, the technical target would place the asset nearly 98% higher than its current price.
Market indicators add further validation. The MACD line is moving toward a bullish crossover on the daily chart, while the RSI has bounced from oversold territory and continues to trend upward. These shifts indicate that momentum is gradually transitioning from sellers to buyers.
A breakout to the neckline is not guaranteed, however. The bullish setup will remain intact only if HBAR holds above $0.123, which has become the defining support level. A breakdown below that line would nullify the current reversal formations and open the door for continued weakness. Analysts note that a retest of $0.10 could come into play if support fails.
The outlook, therefore, depends on whether HBAR can maintain its momentum long enough to escape the descending channel and approach the neckline target. If that happens, futures positioning, improving momentum signals, and renewed spot demand could combine to fuel one of the strongest rallies among major altcoins during the current cycle.
For now, traders are watching two levels closely: $0.123 as the line that must hold to preserve the bullish case, and $0.228 as the level that would confirm the breakout. With sentiment toward Hedera beginning to shift and trading volume increasing, the next few sessions may determine whether today’s rebound marks the start of a lasting move or just another temporary reprieve in a longer downtrend.
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