The world’s largest cryptocurrency has once again found itself in the spotlight after setting a new all-time high above $126,000 earlier this month. While Bitcoin has since cooled slightly, currently trading near $122,700, on-chain data suggests the rally is still strong and far from topping out. According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, one key indicator — the Net Realized Profit/Loss — shows that the market has not yet reached the kind of overheated conditions typically associated with cycle peaks.
Understanding the Net Realized Profit/Loss Indicator
To understand CryptoQuant’s analysis, it’s important to look at how the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator works. The metric essentially measures whether Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or at a loss.
Every time BTC moves on the blockchain, the NPL looks at the price at which the coins were last transacted. If the selling price today is higher than that past price, it counts as a profit. If it’s lower, the move records a loss.
By aggregating this data across the network, analysts can estimate how much net profit or loss is being realized by investors. When profits spike, it often reflects widespread profit-taking, which historically tends to occur near market tops. Conversely, if realized losses dominate, it may indicate capitulation phases or bear market stress.
CryptoQuant’s latest focus is on the 1-year cumulative NPL, denominated in BTC, which smooths out daily volatility and highlights larger structural trends in market behavior.
The Current Trend: A Rally With Room to Grow
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s NPL surged significantly throughout 2024, eventually reaching 5.1 million BTC in January 2025. This period coincided with heavy profit-taking as BTC surged higher.
After January’s peak, however, Bitcoin prices came under pressure. The indicator fell as bearish conditions took hold, reflecting reduced profitability across the market.
But once bullish sentiment returned, the NPL began climbing again. Now, amid Bitcoin’s latest rally to record highs, the cumulative NPL has reached 4.4 million BTC. While this is substantial, it is still:
This gap suggests that profit-taking, while happening, is not at extreme levels. In previous cycles, much higher values have been observed before a market peak was reached.
“Bitcoin’s rally still looks intact,” CryptoQuant wrote in its post on X. “No signs yet of a price peak.”
Why This Matters for Investors
The implication here is that the current rally may still have more room to run. Historically, Bitcoin bull cycles have not topped out until investors collectively realize much higher levels of profit. In other words, the market often needs to reach a stage of exuberance where almost everyone is selling at massive gains before the cycle reverses.
At present, while the NPL is rising, it hasn’t reached those danger-zone levels. This paints a picture of a healthy, sustained rally rather than a short-lived bubble.
Another important takeaway is that the recent pullback from $126,000 to $122,700 may simply be a natural consolidation rather than the start of a deeper correction. On-chain data supports the idea that the broader uptrend remains intact.
Looking Back: Lessons From Past Cycles
To put things in perspective, it helps to compare the current rally with Bitcoin’s previous bull cycles.
2017 Bull Run: Bitcoin surged from under $1,000 to nearly $20,000. During the final stages of that rally, the NPL indicator showed extremely high levels of profit realization, as retail investors flooded the market and sold at massive gains.
2021 Cycle: Bitcoin climbed to $69,000 in November 2021. The NPL hit a high of around 7.7 million BTC in October 2021, signaling significant profit-taking across the board. This was a precursor to the eventual bear market that followed.
Current Cycle: In comparison, the January 2025 NPL peak of 5.1 million BTC is much lower than 2021 levels. Today’s 4.4 million BTC reading also indicates profit-taking, but not on the scale historically associated with cycle-ending tops.
This historical context reinforces CryptoQuant’s assessment that the current bull market may not be over.
The Road Ahead: What to Watch
While the NPL offers encouraging signs, investors should remain cautious. Bitcoin’s price action is influenced by a wide range of factors, including:
Macroeconomic environment: Interest rates, inflation, and global liquidity trends can all impact Bitcoin demand.
Institutional flows: The growing presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries investing in BTC are changing the market structure.
Regulatory developments: Clarity or crackdowns in key markets could alter sentiment dramatically.
Still, on-chain indicators like NPL provide valuable insights into the psychology of Bitcoin holders. At the moment, that psychology seems to reflect confidence and controlled profit-taking, not the kind of frenzied selling that typically ends a bull cycle.
Conclusion
Bitcoin may have slipped slightly from its all-time high, but according to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the rally remains strong. The Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows that while investors are taking profits, levels remain far below those seen at historical market peaks.
This suggests the current rally still has fuel left in the tank. Whether Bitcoin can push significantly higher in the coming months will depend on macroeconomic conditions, institutional demand, and investor sentiment.
For now, however, the data is clear: there are no signs yet of a cycle top.
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