Bitcoin’s once-blazing momentum appears to be cooling off as analysts grow skeptical that the world’s largest cryptocurrency can achieve even half of the lofty year-end targets predicted earlier in 2025. Despite earlier optimism from leading figures like Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, new data and on-chain signals suggest that Bitcoin’s rally could be running out of steam, with exhaustion now dominating market sentiment.
Analysts Cut 2025 Targets as Momentum Wanes
In early October, Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes maintained confidence that Bitcoin could still reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of the year. However, those forecasts now look increasingly unrealistic. According to ShapeShift analyst Houston Morgan, Bitcoin is unlikely to exceed $125,000 in 2025, calling it “a more attainable upper range” given the current macro and on-chain conditions.
“We don’t expect crypto to go any higher than $125K USD in 2025,” Morgan said, noting that the asset has struggled to break away from its correlation with political announcements, particularly those made by U.S. President Donald Trump. Morgan suggested that Bitcoin’s next bull run will require the market to “untether from macro-driven narratives” and find independent momentum through adoption and investor demand.
Bitcoin’s Price Weakens Amid Rising Selling Pressure
Bitcoin’s price has fallen sharply in recent days, dipping to $100,800, its lowest level in four months. The drop marks a nearly 10% weekly decline, according to CoinMarketCap data. Analysts at Bitfinex attributed this move to “persistent distribution from long-term holders,” who appear to be cashing out profits into weakening demand.
“This sustained outflow aligns with the broader signs of exhaustion visible across the market,” Bitfinex said in a research note. “Long-term holders continue to offload into declining demand, which puts structural pressure on the price.”
The firm added that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim key resistance levels around $116,000, it could experience further downside before the end of the year. Without a decisive recovery, the market risks entering a prolonged stagnation phase — a scenario that historically leads to further sentiment erosion and forced liquidations.
“Extreme Fear” Returns to the Crypto Market
The latest correction has had a visible effect on sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a widely followed indicator of market emotion, fell to 21 out of 100 this week — firmly in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Such readings suggest investors are increasingly risk-averse, a stark contrast to the “Greed” levels seen just a month ago when Bitcoin traded near its all-time high of $126,000.
Analysts warn that time is now a “headwind for bulls,” as extended periods of price stagnation tend to push retail traders out of the market. Historically, similar conditions have preceded medium-term corrections before new accumulation phases begin.
Contrasting Views: Optimists Still Hold Out Hope
Despite growing bearishness, some market figures remain optimistic. On a Bankless podcast in early October, Tom Lee of BitMine and Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, reiterated their belief that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of the year. Both analysts cited increasing institutional demand, improving liquidity, and the next Bitcoin halving cycle as factors that could ignite a sharp rally.
However, not everyone shares their enthusiasm. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said such an outcome would require “the planets to align,” implying that multiple favorable macroeconomic factors would need to occur simultaneously — from lower interest rates to a return of retail speculation.
Outlook for 2026: Bulls and Bears Remain Split
While 2025 may fall short of expectations, analysts are divided on what lies ahead for 2026. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the next year could mark a new phase of growth, calling 2026 an “up year” for Bitcoin driven by institutional adoption and expanding ETF markets.
In contrast, financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth took a more cautious stance, predicting that 2026 will likely mirror previous midterm years, which have historically been bearish for crypto markets. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently suggested that Bitcoin could revisit $60,000, signaling the potential for deeper corrections before the next major uptrend begins.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s recent performance highlights the growing uncertainty in the crypto market as investors reassess long-term expectations. While predictions of a $250,000 price tag now appear far-fetched, the ongoing structural adjustments could still lay the foundation for a healthier market recovery in the coming years.
As one analyst noted, “Bitcoin is tired, but not broken.” Whether the current phase marks a brief cooldown or the beginning of a longer consolidation period will depend on how the asset reacts to the $100,000–$116,000 range — a zone that could determine the next major trend for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
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