Key takeaways:
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Derivatives data show limited confidence among Bitcoin traders despite strong ETF inflows, keeping downside risks on the table.
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Gold’s surge and falling Treasury yields highlight growing investor fear as fiscal stress and trade disputes weigh on traders’ sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to regain bullish momentum since reaching its $126,219 all-time high on Monday. Strong spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows point to solid institutional demand, but weakness in BTC derivatives metrics suggests traders remain uncertain about whether the $117,000 level will hold.
Monthly Bitcoin futures are trading at a 7% premium compared to spot markets, showing little change over the week. Periods of strong optimism typically push this premium above 10% as demand for leveraged long positions rises. However, data indicates traders’ confidence has not improved, even after Bitcoin’s 14% rally between Sept. 28 and Tuesday, as the indicator remains near the same level as a month ago.
Bitcoin lags behind as gold hits record amid US-China tensions
Gold surged to a record high near $4,050 on Wednesday, signaling that investors are seeking safety as the United States faces a fiscal crisis and slowing economic growth. Renowned portfolio manager and billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the risks from spiraling US debt pose a “threat to the monetary order,” according to Bloomberg.
US President Donald Trump accused China of imposing new port fees on rare earth mineral exports, threatening a “massive increase” in Chinese import tariffs in response. The S&P 500 index fell 1.9% as investors grew concerned that escalating trade war tensions could hurt corporate earnings, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector.
While Bitcoin is often viewed as a form of digital gold, its correlation with the S&P 500 remains significant, with the rolling 40-day relationship currently at 73%. Traders’ risk appetite appears heavily influenced by fears of an impending stock market downturn, and the strong demand for short-term US government bonds supports that view.
Yields on the one-year US Treasury fell to 3.61%, near their lowest levels in more than three years, indicating that investors are accepting lower returns despite persistent inflation pressures. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 2.7% year over year in August, the highest in six months, and analysts expect prices to accelerate in 2026 as import duties take effect.
The delta skew on Bitcoin options climbed to 8% on Friday, showing that traders remain uneasy about downside price exposure. Interestingly, this indicator last showed optimism on July 18, following a 13.4% two-week rally — suggesting that whatever is restraining Bitcoin bullish sentiment has been in place for quite some time.
Stablecoin demand in China offers valuable insight into traders’ positioning. When investors rush to exit the cryptocurrency market, stablecoins typically trade at a 0.5% or greater discount compared with the official US dollar/CNY rate.
Related: Banks explore launching a stablecoin linked to G7 currencies
Tether had been trading at a slight discount since Wednesday, suggesting traders were previously cashing out as Bitcoin struggled to maintain bullish momentum. However, the metric returned to parity after BTC fell below $120,000, indicating that traders are no longer eager to exit the crypto market.
Despite an impressive $5 billion in net inflows to Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) so far in October, confidence remains subdued as macroeconomic risks stay elevated. BTC derivatives metrics show traders are still hesitant to turn bullish, leaving room for further Bitcoin price downside.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
